Zoning Reform vs. Rent Control: What’s the Real Fix for Housing Affordability?
Massachusetts is staring down two very different approaches to its housing crisis.
Rewriting Neighborhood Boundaries
Across the country, cities are beginning to challenge the decades-old norm of single-family-only zoning. Portland, Oregon, and Minneapolis, Minnesota, offer two examples of what happens when local governments try to open up neighborhoods to more housing types.
Portland’s Residential Infill Project
In Portland, the Residential Infill Project (RIP) rolled back single-family zoning to allow duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, and cottage clusters in neighborhoods that once permitted only detached homes.
Since 2018, middle housing development has surged, becoming the most common type of new construction in those districts. More importantly, these homes have sold for an average of $250,000 to $300,000 less than equivalent single-family homes, offering a tangible affordability boost.
This, of course, sounds wonderful for the Progressive Urban Planners… but I know that I’d be pissed if a single family home next to me were torn down to build a 4-plex. And I’m not alone - appraisers note that in some cases, nearby density can suppress buyer demand for traditional single-family homes on the same street, especially if design standards aren’t strong.
Minneapolis 2040 Plan
Minneapolis went further with its 2040 Plan, which eliminated single-family zoning citywide.
Minneapolis 2040
Theory vs Reality
In theory, this reform opened up vast new opportunities for multifamily development. In practice, the results have been mixed.
Between 2020 and 2022, only a few dozen duplexes and triplexes were built in formerly single-family districts. The real growth came from easing restrictions along transit corridors and eliminating costly parking mandates, which spurred an apartment construction boom.
The lesson is that zoning changes alone don’t guarantee new housing—it often takes complementary reforms to really move the needle.
The Promise—and Pitfalls—of Rent Control
At the same time, Massachusetts is revisiting an old idea: rent control (because we’re stupid). A newly certified ballot initiative would cap annual rent increases at 5% or the rate of inflation, whichever is lower.
Supporters say this is essential to protect tenants from steep rent hikes and displacement in a high-cost market. I mean… what else would they say? They can’t just come out and talk about evil property owners, right?
Long-Term Effects of Rent Control
Economically, the long-term effects of rent control are mixed. "In San Francisco, a widely cited study found that rent control led to a 15% reduction in the rental housing supply as landlords converted units to other uses, while overall citywide rents rose about 7% due to reduced availability."
Yes, you read that right – supply dropped and rents rose. You can try to fight supply and demand but you’ll lose and cause other negative effects. But we’re so smart in Massachusetts that our legislators will just say that it wasn’t the “right” kind of rent control… they’ve figured it out THIS time. wink, wink
Other research has confirmed that while existing tenants may benefit in the short term, "rent control discourages new construction, reduces mobility, and can lead to deferred maintenance in older buildings." (Of course it will!)
A global review of more than 200 rent control studies reached a similar conclusion: while the policy protects certain groups of renters in the short run, it typically undermines the long-term health and affordability of housing markets.
It’s clear that all of the people running those previous studies are just dumb, right? Right? They really needed all the super smart people in Massachusetts to save the day. It’s like when I had to listen to people tell me that Democratic Socialism was the way to go… because it’s “democratic” because the people vote to steal your money… which makes it totally fair. (Please note all the sarcasm… and imagine me rolling my eyes… the sarcasm is getting everywhere)
Lessons from Other Cities
Comparison of Zoning Reform & Rent Control Outcomes
What It Could Mean for Boston
Boston sits at the crossroads of these two approaches. On one side is zoning reform, where recent state laws already require MBTA communities to allow multifamily housing near transit. On the other is rent control, where a statewide ballot initiative is once again being pushed by advocates.
If we follow Portland’s path
If Massachusetts follows Portland’s path—opening the door to more middle housing—the likely outcome would be more small-scale multifamily projects in suburban towns. This, of course, requires sewer instead of septic.
Over time, this could create a broader mix of housing options priced below detached single-family homes, helping buyers who feel priced out of traditional neighborhoods. But it will also lower the value of the single family homes with higher-density homes nearby.
What will end up happening? Rather than watch their home values drop, single family owners will sell their homes for the land, which will be more valuable because a builder can build more densely… and they’ll leave the area for other areas that believe in freedom and land rights.
If we follow Minneapolis’s path
But Boston may also mirror Minneapolis in the short term. Zoning reform alone won’t solve the housing shortage unless it is paired with parking reform, streamlined permitting, and incentives for builders. Without those adjustments, development may remain modest and affordability pressures will persist.
And we all know how much Progressive legislators love reducing regulation and incentivizing builders. (More sarcasm if you didn’t notice)
If rent control makes a comeback
If rent control makes a comeback, history suggests the results will look more like San Francisco. Tenants in controlled units would see temporary relief, but landlords could respond by removing units from the rental pool, reducing investment in upkeep, and slowing new construction.
By the way, I don’t believe that will be a “could” response. I believe it will be a “will” response… but I’m trying (really trying) to be objective here.
Over time, that would likely leave fewer rentals available and higher prices in the uncontrolled portion of the market (I know… hard to believe for anybody with any sense of reason and logic) —undermining the policy’s original purpose. This is why they want to pass rent control across the entire Commonwealth. They want to leave you no place to hide.
They won’t be happy until you’re not happy!
The end game
The end game? Zoning reform has the “potential” to gradually expand housing supply and stabilize prices, while rent control risks shrinking the pool of available housing (I’d put money on that bet).
For Massachusetts, the key will be choosing policies that not only provide short-term relief but also ensure long-term growth. I don’t know about you… but I have zero faith in our legislators to pull it off. Nevertheless, they’re going to try to cram it down our throats and tell us it’ll be good for us and we’ll like it. Or else.
References
City of Portland – Residential Infill Project outcomes: https://www.portland.gov/bps/planning/rip2/news/2025/2/4/portland-sees-significant-production-middle-housing-resulting
Minneapolis Federal Reserve – 2040 Plan data tool and impacts: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2024/minneapolis-2040-plan-data-tool-prepared-to-measure-impacts
Axios Twin Cities – Minneapolis apartment boom explained: https://www.axios.com/local/twin-cities/2023/08/15/what-really-created-minneapolis-apartment-boom
Axios Boston – Rent control petition coverage: https://www.axios.com/local/boston/2025/09/03/massachusetts-rent-control-ballot
Brookings Institution – Economic evidence on rent control: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-does-economic-evidence-tell-us-about-the-effects-of-rent-control/
UCLA Lewis Center – Meta-analysis of global rent control research: https://www.lewis.ucla.edu/2025/01/22/84-a-review-of-rent-control-research-with-konstantin-kholodilin/
